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Lumenaut Monte Carlo Risk Simulation Package

The Lumenaut Monte Carlo Simulation package provides a range of tools that enable the user to easily and quickly build interactive monte carlo risk simulation models natively in Excel.

If you have an existing Excel model or building one from scratch, it is simple to place a Monte Carlo Simulation on top of this. There are no special formulas required, just point and click on the individual cells you wish to mark in the analysis and set the parameters.

Monte Carlo Analysis is increasingly being used in all fields and industries where a better appreciation of the actual likelihood of obtaining certain results such as profitability (Business Analysis, Project Risk Assessment), Tolerances (Manufacturing and Six Sigma), failures (engineering), for example, is required.

Example of a simple financial model

Click for large viewThe basic Model, Bob wishes to examine the likely profitability of his new product idea. So he first builds his financial predictive model in Excel. However, all he gets out of this model is a single answer what he needs is an ideal of the possible range of profits he can make and their probabilities.

Bob decides to use Monte Carlo analysis as this will enable him to ascribe probability distributions to his input variables

Using the Risk Input Form, below, he chooses suitable probability distribution for his input parameters. These cells are marked in green by Lumenaut.

Click for large viewThe following statistical distributions are available:

              1. Beta
              2. Binomial
              3. Exponential
              4. Extreme Value
              5. Gamma
              6. Geometric
              7. Lognormal
              8. Logistic
              9. Negative Binomial
              10. Normal
              11. Poisson
              12. Triangular
              13. Uniform
              14. Weibul

Click for large viewUsing the Output Form, opposite, he selects the output cells in the model, in this case profitability, shown in orange above by Lumenaut.

It is possible to give each individual output cell an easy to identify name.

 

Click for large view

Finally the model can be run via the Run Simulation Form, it is possible to set the number of iterations for the simulation from 1,000 to millions.

The speed of the simulation can be adjust.

 

Individual names can be given to the result sheet.

 

Click for large view The results of the simulation are printed in a result sheet.

Probability distribution for the output variables, in green.

 

 

The frequency distribution table opposite.

Univariate statistics Mean, Median, Mode, Standard Deviation, Variance, Mean Standard Error, Variance, Range, Max , Min , Skewness and Kurtosis.

The input distributions are shown in blue.

Option to conduct sensitivity analysis and export raw simulation data.

 

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Try Lumenaut for Free for 15 days, just download and install.

 

 

Key Highlights for the Lumenaut Monte Carlo Package

  1. Fully integrated into Excel;
  2. Easy to use interface;
  3. Simple model setup and management as Lumenaut Monte Carlo analysis does not use proprietary Excel worksheet formulas;
  4. 14 input statistical distributions to chose from, can tailor each distributions parameters and cut off tails as desired;
  5. Multiple input and output cells can be defined;
  6. Run a minimum of 1,000 upward iterations of the model;
  7. Set output cells to monitor during simulation
  8. Displays results in a single easy to read result sheet that can be shared with colleagues; and
  9. Very reasonably priced.

Lumenaut Monte Carlo Application

Perry J. Pickhardt, and Cesare Hassan et al used Lumenaut Monte Carlo Simulator in their study to assess the clinical and economic impact of colonoscopic referral for small and diminutive polyps detected at CT colonography (CTC) screening.

 

Lumenaut User Base

Here is a short list of some of the institutions that are currently using Lumenaut.


The University of Western Ontario
University of Montreal
University of Western Ontario
Universidad de los Andes
INCAE Business School
Carnegie Mellon
Columbia University
Cornell University
Duke
Fuqua School of Business
Haas School of Business
Harvard Business School
Olin School of Business
Pepperdine University
Tufts University
University of California
University of Michigan
University of Virginia
Chinese University of Hong Kong
Indian Institute of Management
Indian Institute of Technology
Kochi University of Technology
Kyoto University
University of Tokyo
National University of Singapore
Middle East Technical University
Victoria University of Wellington
Aarhus Business School
University of Mannheim
University of Zurich
Edinburgh University
Imperial College London
University of Manchester
University of Oxford
Warwick Business School

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